Nuclear Threat Stick from Space

Such a fuss has been made that it is impossible to be comfortable after the statements made. It is not possible. Indeed, those who looked at the issue from a distance became uneasy, they became suspicious, and not only suspicious, but even the most authoritative mouthpieces immediately stated that we were on our toes. They ranted and raved, and to make a long story short, "our globe is under the threat of a weapon of doom".  

The Kremlin: "fabricated", the White House: "Russia is working on this weapon", "US on red alert: we are under threat". "Speaker of the House of Representatives Turner: Biden should make a statement, share what he knows with the public, blah blah blah... These are the things that come to mind at first glance: Of course, the tongue has no bones. In the US, the headlines exploded one after the other: Eight-column headlines: "Nuclear Weapon in Space". US House of Representatives Speaker Turner: "Why should Biden make a statement"? "U.S. national security threatened" "Russia to send nuclear satellites into orbit? How real is "Nuclear Weapon in Space"? "Is the competition in the arms race of countries moving to space?" It is possible to carry similar questions to the lines of the article. In this article, dear readers, we will try to examine how real this issue is.  

Now, if you allow me, I would like to draw a general framework, and then I would like to bring a conceptual and legal framework before you. Let us state in capital letters that "SPACE, THE LIVING SPACE OF MANKIND, INCLUDING THE EARTH, IS SPECIFIED IN INTERNATIONAL CONSTITUTIONS AS A SPACE OWNED BY EVERYONE, IN WHICH NO STATE CAN ESTABLISH SOVEREIGNTY." 

It is very confusing, the key word here is not "galaxy" in the sense of "solar system", but in a narrow sense we are talking about the space in which the earth orbits. Space is, of course, the infinite void you see when you look at the sky, which contains everything that exists. It is, of course, the infinite, boundless space that contains all celestial bodies. Beyond the stratosphere we are talking about the Earth's orbit. The stratosphere is, of course, a layer of the Earth's atmosphere. The stratosphere lies above the troposphere and below the mesosphere. Without going into too much detail, large volcanic eruptions and large meteorite impacts can eject aerosol particles into the stratosphere, where they can linger for months or years, sometimes altering Earth's global climate. Rocket launches inject exhaust gases into the stratosphere with uncertain consequences, no doubt. (1) 

Looking at the event hypothetically, the following descriptions can be expressed at first glance. When space is considered as a battlefield between states, the dominance in this area emerges as an area that will determine the military power leadership in the world and the winners of wars. Superiority in space has a quality that can also affect land, sea and air wars. To be deprived of these opportunities means to be reduced to a capacity to wage war without the use of technology (GPS navigation system, satellite phones, missile defense systems, receiving intelligence information, area imaging will be disabled). At the same time, any attack on a country's equipment in space (satellites, space station, etc.) (cyber-attack, neutralization of satellites with killer satellites, use of force) is considered an act of war and contains an element that can cause war in the world. (2) 

During the Cold War, the US-USSR rivalry led space to gain importance as a strategic area. Today, the global competition continues intensely between the US and the PRC-RF, while North Korea's space activities and Iran's space activities continue rapidly. In a war that may take place on Earth, intervening in the world from space and eliminating threats, making the enemy blind and deaf, provides the opportunity to establish a great superiority. In the 1991 First Gulf War, the US utilized its capabilities in space. The effectiveness of these capabilities was keenly felt by the members of the Turkish Armed Forces in Silopi, where I was stationed, and by the members of the Turkish Armed Forces in this region, and telecommunications were disrupted for a long time. Since then, while this superiority has been developing on a satellite-based basis, it is claimed that satellites in the region will be affected by the shift of the magnetic field in the Arctic region. Since the RF and the PRC, which invest in space, consider the US and its allies as a threat, it is thought that they may damage and render dysfunctional their satellite systems, causing many satellites to lose their function. There is intelligence information that the RF is conducting military exercises to increase its combat capability by disabling such systems. 

One of the most important questions is the phenomenon of threatening the peoples living directly on earth with nuclear weapons from space. In his press conference on February 15, 2024, Biden clarified this issue in a way to eliminate the concerns of the American public. In his speech, Biden emphasized that "the target of the nuclear weapons likely to be placed in space by the RF is anti-satellite in nature, and the US people cannot be targeted". However, the fact that Mike Turner, the Chairman of the Intelligence Committee of the US House of Representatives, revealed that Russia has a plan to deploy nuclear weapons in space with the information he has aroused curiosity. Turner claimed that Russia's plan to deploy nuclear weapons in space threatened national security, to which the Kremlin immediately responded, with Spokesperson Peskov emphasizing that the reports in the US press were a 'hoax' and strongly denying these claims as inconsistent. 

Let's analyze together what awaits the world in a possible scenario in which Russia deploys nuclear weapons in space. In a historical perspective, the Russian Federation tested an anti-satellite missile in 2018. The RF has set as a goal to eliminate satellites that disable satellites, especially satellites that spy on its country for intelligence and military purposes. The RF, PRC, North Korea and Iran are known to have invested heavily in space-related capabilities, especially in anti-satellite weapons. This poses a serious threat to the global satellite network on which all units of the US Armed Forces depend for navigation and strikes. The RF is already known to have an offensive anti-satellite capability. In addition to conducting a known test of an anti-satellite weapon in space, a mini-satellite equipped with a projectile was launched from the mother ship and then test-fired. Russian satellites have also been threateningly towed close to US satellites. On the other hand, in 2021, Russia was able to test its anti-missile weapon by firing at the defunct Soviet-era Cosmos 1408 satellite and smashing it to pieces. Another important aspect that the RF has tested is the ability to use nuclear detonation and directed nuclear energy to change the orbits of satellites in space. 

Now the question is: can such a thing be done in space? Yes, it can. Experience has shown that a nuclear weapon can be detonated in space to interfere with satellites by emitting radiation. It has long been known that radiation from a nuclear explosion can travel at the speed of light due to the lack of air in space. Although the US satellites have been retrofitted to withstand kinetic attacks and electronic jamming, they would undoubtedly be vulnerable to a targeted nuclear attack. In fact, the launch of nuclear weapons into orbit would constitute a grave violation of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, signed as early as the USSR.  The Treaty prohibits the placement of nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction in orbit or on celestial bodies. (3) 

In today's environment of gross violations, it clearly shows that this issue can be violated by the RF. The RF may well arm its space systems with nuclear devices, it has this capability. Now it is worth underlining and stating a tested fact: "Radiation from a nuclear explosion in space can destroy all satellites within the line of sight of the explosion" has been tested and demonstrated. An important implication of this is that it could have a devastating effect on US communications and early warning systems. In this case, the US could potentially place nuclear devices in orbit targeting satellite systems, creating a new frontier in the growing offensive capabilities of the RF and transforming space into the battlefield of the 21st century. This would force the United States to develop and implement new space-centric countermeasures and add another dangerous component to the nascent arms race in the skies. If the Russian Federation puts nuclear weapons in Earth orbit, the US will be forced to take new countermeasures, which could increase global tensions. 

On the other hand, the PRC, like the RF, is also experimenting with similar issues.  The potential to put nuclear weapons into orbit was tested by the Chinese in 2021. Beijing launched a long-range missile into orbit and shot down a hypersonic vehicle in space. The US Armed Forces said in a statement that this appeared to be the first weapon capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, but Beijing denied this claim. As is well known, this technology is not new. Pioneered by the Soviet Union in the 1960s, it was later dubbed the fractional orbital bombardment system (FOBS). (3) However, the PRC's successful test in 2021 and the RF's current plans to launch a nuclear-armed anti-satellite system into space reveal the nightmare scenarios facing the US and its western allies.

After all this, it is obvious that in today's chaotic environment, where crimes against humanity are rampant, even if new rules are tried to be established outside the 1967 Outer Space Treaty on the weaponization of outer space, they will be of no value as long as they are not binding.  One of the biggest handicaps of our time, dear readers, is the lack of consensus among the five veto-wielding UN Security Council member states on sanctions on this issue, as long as the principle of "When national interests are at stake, international law is ignored" is applied and the perpetrator gets away with it.

Footnotes

(1) Milliyet Newspaper News Service "What is the Stratosphere? Briefly What are the Characteristics of the Stratosphere?", Milliyet Newspaper, 03.06.2021; https://www.milliyet.com.tr/egitim/stratosfer-nedir-kisaca-strosferin-ozellikleri-nelerdir-6522248/ Accessed on 18.02.2024/

(2) Aşkın İnci Sökmen, "New Battlefield: Uzay”, TASAM; https://tasam.org/Files/Icerik/File/Gelecegin_g%C3%BCvenigi_%C4%B0GK_4_EKT_(2)_pdf_9e23cf81-08d6-4065-858d-5639c5ee70b7.pdf/ Erişim Tarihi 18.02.2024/

(3) Oxygen Newspaper, "The Times analyzed: What happens if Putin deploys nuclear weapons in space?"; https://gazeteoksijen.com/dunya/the-times-analiz-etti-putin-uzaya-nukleer-konuslandirirsa-ne-olur-203200/ Accessed on 18.02.2024/