Turkey's Policy Towards NATO Membership of Sweden and Finland

NATO's Consensus Rule and Turkey:

Our President, who expressed a positive opinion to Finnish President Sauli Niinistö in a phone call a month ago, said in his last statement after the Friday prayer, "We do not have a positive opinion about Sweden and Finland's decision to join NATO." Here is another pragmatic leader behavior for you. I will not comment on the fact that he knows something. As long as this situation will ultimately be beneficial for our country.

Feeling the gravity of the situation in their veins after Russia's entry into Ukraine, Finland, one of the two Scandinavian countries, immediately decided to apply to join NATO. Even though Sweden has not acted that fast yet, we know that it is of the same opinion.

The current basic rule for joining NATO is for all member states to give a full vote of acceptance. The consensus rule. This rule is being discussed in NATO, but it has not changed yet. Maybe that will probably change soon, just because of Turkey.

Yes, the joining of Sweden and Finland to NATO means a narrower circle for Russia. You must have written, read or heard about this in many news in the press that Russia would not like at all.

Again, a lot of news appeared in our press, from their supporters of terrorism to Finland and Sweden, to who primarily supported the membership of these two states in Europe, what stages were passed while taking this decision in Finland, and other explanations.

Turkey's Objection to Possible Membership of Finland and Sweden:

Of course, Turkey's bringing the issue of terrorism to the agenda is a situation in which it is completely right. We should put it in your eyes in every environment. In this sense, it is very important to explain our sensitivities to those who want to hear it while we have the opportunity.

However, I wanted to write my views on the subject from a slightly different angle.

It seems that another horse bargain has begun behind closed doors.

There are also talk shows on various channels in Russia. But those who argue are not people who know every subject like us, they usually bring out experts on every subject and get their opinions on the subject they are experts in. I've come across it since Finland and Sweden's participation in NATO was on the agenda.

The table I understand is already set. I don't know what concessions Russia will have to make to Turkey in order for us to vote negatively in the voting, and whether we will be able to find out somehow, I guess time will tell.

But let me at least try to list the known issues, the problems between the two countries, and possible bargaining issues.

Can Moscow Make Ankara Say "No"?

I think Crimea is the leader with its specific gravity for Russia. Turkey does not recognize the annexation like all other countries, it may even sound more prominent than the others, it may never recognize it, but I think we can ask for a special status for the Crimean Tatars at least. For Russia, this request will not be a big problem. The structure of the state is already a federation. There are many autonomous regions, Crimea could be one of them.

Syria is another problem, you can guess, it may be a request from Russia to support the completion of the unfinished operation here. Even without the need for a new operation, the silent transfer of the areas under the control of Russian forces to Turkish control may be a solution. Since Assad was already aware of this situation, he had recently gone to meet with Iran to seek support as if he had given up hope from Russia. It seems highly probable that Turkey will increase its weight in Syria in the near future.

The Nakhchivan-Azerbaijan corridor, which was taken slowly in Armenia, will again come to the table as an important bargaining issue. Russia's commitments are already in writing. Only by speeding this up can this issue be settled as soon as possible. Armenia's resistance is now Russia's problem.

Libya has fallen off the agenda for quite some time. I don't know exactly how much weight Russia has left. But here too, it may come to the fore to ask for some concessions from Russia, at least at the support site.

Again, the subject, which is not on the agenda these days, may be asked to officially recognize the independent Northern Cyprus by Russia. Although, I do not think that this issue can only be accepted with Turkey's objection to Finland and Sweden being NATO members. Russia will also have additional counter-requests, maybe they may want the annexation of Crimea to be officially accepted, maybe the inaccessible region in Karabakh, which is still officially Azerbaijani territory and protected by Russian forces, can be officially recognized as an autonomous region by Turkey and Azerbaijan, as a counter-argument. .

What else could it be?

Another? The future of Ukraine is still a mystery, the issue will not come to the table in this sense, since the war is still going on and a political solution is still far away. Maybe the Bayraktars can come to the fore only in return for Russia's greater concessions. Withdrawal of technical support may be on the table as a counter-argument. Anyway, Turkey decided to reconsider its support on the grounds that it was misused, partly to cover up the loss of prestige, due to the many drones shot down. Nevertheless, SİHAs have done and continue to do so much damage to expensive Russian military equipment so far.

Other issues will probably be commercial issues.

In the first place, natural gas prices will probably lead the concessions that can be made.

I wish Russia would again provide various facilities to Turkish companies, as in the past, but things would open up for Turkish companies, construction companies still continue to work at a limited rate, there are projects in progress in many places, but the conditions are not the same as before, various restrictions were made especially in bringing Turkish workers, The quotas are very limited, even they do not exist in most of them, which makes it necessary to work with local labor force, the work is done completely in Russian norms and rules, it has become very difficult to compete with other companies. External financing opportunities have not been possible for a while because of the embargoes. This caused many projects to stop. Only state affairs are running for now, and that is lagging because most of the investment resources are currently spent on war and keeping the domestic economy afloat, Russia does not have direct resources to make concessions. Maybe if you work for rubles. Another possibility is to make an inter-state agreement in return for our natural gas debt, and switch to a system where Turkey pays directly to contractors. I think this solution will be brought to the table.

Maybe tomato and vegetable purchases can also be increased, we can pay off some of our natural gas debt with the same method. It will come to the table again. Many of our heavy industry facilities were built by the Russians at the time, and we paid the price with tomatoes and oranges. Why not, it will also benefit the owner of the vineyard or garden.

Tourists will again be a bargaining chip. Whatever there is, they love Antalya, especially Antalya. Just kidding, I like it too. When I was young, we set up a tent on Konyaaltı beach and had a holiday with my friends. I still remember the cliffs at the end of the beach.

Anyway, I think some concessions can be made about the Turkish Union, they can agree to participate as an observer in the union representing the Turkic communities living in Russia, and they can tolerate the participation of Tatars, Bashkirs, Yakuts, Chuvashs and other communities in the federated structure, at least as observers. Although this situation is like cutting the branch he is on, maybe this can make a concession.

Maybe you can think of other issues. But I guess those are the main issues.

Of course, these are the main problems in terms of Russia-Turkey relations and the negotiation issues that can be put on the table. We call it a horse bargain, let's see what the other side will put on the table.

Turkey-Sweden Meeting:

Already Sweden is coming to Turkey to meet.

I don't know what they can talk about, no way, maybe they'll apologize for terrorist support.

Maybe they say they can accept 1 million of our refugees in order to join NATO.

The last census was made in 2020, they have a population of just over 10 million, if they take 1 million refugees, it would be 10%. Nothing, 450 thousand km2 country, big enough. I wrote in an article, the world average is about 50 people per 1 km2. According to our old calculation, 22.5 million people can comfortably fit in, with 1 million refugees they will receive, they are still well below the world average.

Besides, they will have a lot of labor to work for cheap, maybe it will help them to develop a little more.

If they can teach men to hold a gun, they will be useful as soldiers who will send them to the front in a possible Russian war. Great plan, it's a win-win situation.

It's a bit cold there, but I think our refugees will gladly go. After all, Sweden ranks 8th in the world with a per capita income of $ 58,977. He licked his finger holding honey. I don't like this proverb at all, but they say so, they will become Swedish citizens, I think they will run away.

In fact, after all, since they are so rich, another solution came to my mind. If I were you, I would say to you, let's give money, for example, it will definitely be accepted. Thus, they speak a language that our people can understand. Even with Saudi Arabia, they devoured all the words for three cents money and made peace. Let Sweden enter NATO, right, they say we said it's good luck, it'll happen. Fans immediately put aside the discourse of terror and begin to say that it is good and good.

How About Finland?

I had a pen pal in Kuleli, at that time we were sending letters to the girls abroad in English, it was practical, in a sense, there was a private letter organization, through that organization. 

We started correspondence with him. I even forgot her name, but she was a beautiful girl, she sent me her passport picture. He told a little about that place, Finland. They had their own special Finnish saunas, I came across it later, I made a Finnish sauna in a project. Afterwards, I already worked in other jobs with the Finns. Kone is a worldwide elevator and escalator company, a Finnish brand. The director of the firm was a Finnish citizen. lovely people.

If Finland also comes to Turkey to meet, I will write how we can negotiate with them. I know a little bit.

Let's see how the result will be complete. We will see together.

Love and regards from Moscow.